Harry's “The Daily Horse” > 032218 > Thursday
An enormous interest is being sparked by the lightly raced 1-H female family chestnut colt Justify. His heraldry is Scat Daddy x Stage Magic x Ghostzapper. On my sheet I have him as undefeated in two starts at 3 years old; and if Justify can move forward in the waning days of the Triple Crown preps and emerge in the Kentucky Derby, he would seek to be the first racer to win in the Kentucky Derby unraced as 2yo since Apollo in 1882.
If good looks could be the barometer of success in the Run for the Roses, certainly Justify would be a Mr. Universe finalist. We must first consider his antecedents along the tail-female bottom line and their paramours in order to somehow gauge the sort of power pack Justify will carry or attempt to lug in the ten furlong severe test which the Kentucky Derby always is.
Without commentary or judgment let us look at the broodmare sire array and discover what sort of feeling that elicits among us bloodlines students? After all it is important in analysis of the Thoroughbred to take into account what sort of bloodlines mixture the various components of the bottom two lines meld to synchronicity? We may find a performer of sterling deeds on the track who brings little in the bloodlines brew to his or her decedents. And we often find genuine contributions from the lesser lights of race track performers in a champions pedigree, like Yankee Gentleman, or Elliptical in the immediate generations of Triple Crown superstar American Pharoah! Here are the 7 latest broodmare sires integrated into Justify's DNA swab.
For the Moment
as for the mares associated along the tail-female we have:
Stage Magic 3 wins stakes placed
Magical Illusion 3 wins G1 placed (CCA Oaks)
Voodoo Lily 5 wins SW
Cap The Moment
Set Your Cap
Miss Elybai 2 wins
The latter Alistaff is ancestress to racer and useful stallion Mr. Livingston.
Miss Elybai is ancestress to tough gelding Kid Cruz.
Set Your Cap is ancestress to Hail To Leader-
Cap the Moment is ancestress to Lily O' Gold, a G2 placed damsel.
Voodoo Lily, Magical Illusion and Stage Magic need some more time to establish flourishing or insignificant families; but the arrival of Justify seems to approximate the average time span for the development of a family to create a top notch equine. Which in my observations is generally once every 75 years. That time span would hurtle us back to 1943 let us have a look and see what we may unearth from that time period?
Indeed if we journey back to the 10th dam of Justify, My Tide by Man O' War's brother My Play (?) circa 1927 we will discover a French classic winner in Blue Tom (1964) which won the French 2000 Guineas in 1967. His half brother Amber Rama, was also a distinguished upper crust performer. Also visible along this panorama is Eaglesham, a very good Northern Dancer son which won a stakes at the Big A many moons back. Further in America we discover Gillie, a son of Preakness Stakes hero (?) Victorian- He won the Santa Anita Derby of 1935, which pretty much is within the time frame I suggested for this family to strike a major chord in American Classic racing and its preparatory events.
As for the figures for Justify his dosage profile shows a trace of staying power >5-6-8-1-0 and his dosage index 3.00 and center of distribution 0.75 are in the main body of the breed so to speak. His Watnik # which I send along in this dispatch somewhat reluctantly; as it has not proved sound as a principle in any particular race, but has mainly pointed the way to “talented” runners whose triumphs may be occasionally enjoyed as dividend producing wagers. Anyhow Justify will show up in Louisville with a number de Watnik amassing to (29) just a point below the divisor of “30”-
We now must address the so-called curse of Apollo which won the 1882 Kentucky Derby, and is the last winner to have eschewed racing at 2yo and won the great event at Churchill Downs! Apollo was a son of Lever, of the tale male lineage of stupendous Lexington, the greatest American stallion of the 19th century. (Apollo is a grandson of Lexington)- Apollo ran an amazing 55 times and won 24 events including the Coal Stakes and Drummers Stakes in addition to his glorious triumph in the KD.
The Derby of 1882 featured 14 runners including Wendover, Harry Gilmore, Bruce, and Babcock. The race had every observer of the event on tip toes as Harry Gilmore entered the stretch with a lead of half length over determined Runnymede, suddenly with a breathtaking series of jumps Runnymede had taken the lead and was racing with ease and his mouth “wide open” and the assembley let out a war whoop which shook Louisville as if the great Madrid fault had opened its awesome jaws!! but THIS HAPPINESS FOR Runnymede CARRYING OFF THE ROSES EVAPORATED AT the furlong pole when inexplicably Runnymede quit! And sailing along came Apollo, from nowhere to win off by a length over Runnymede who was still two lengths before 3rd place Bengal. Runnymede was a son of Billet and carried 105 pounds Apollo carried 102 pounds and Bowen & Companys brown colt Bengal also a son of Billet carried 105 pounds as well.
Apollo was foaled at Preakness Farm in Lexington Kentucky, stood barely a grasshopper above 15 hands as a Derby winner, and in the journals of the day he is described as having a “deep chest, and arched loin, high on the withers, wide jowls, a good stout neck, some white upon his left hind pastern, a heavy head, good length, long quarters and hips, with excellent, clean and bony legs!” He is a gelding and a chestnut. And in his time there was some doubt if his sire was imported Ashstead or the aforementioned Lever. It should also be mentioned that the 8th Kentucky Derby which is what Apollo won, was marred by a series of false starts and once the field was finally sent off-the start was a “miserable” beginning with racers pointed and going in every direction! The race time 2.40 and ¾. The race being 12 furlongs from 1875 until the first winner at the modern Derby distance, immortal Ben Brush in 1896.
Races and Runners 032218 Thursday
POST TIME WITH J.J. GRACI